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Main assumptions used for the medium-term forecasts
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ANNEX
1
Main assumptions used for the medium-term forecasts |
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2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
Short-term interest rate (annual
average) (1) |
2,9 |
4,2 |
4,1 |
4,0 |
3,8 |
3,7 |
|
Long-term interest rate (annual
average) (1) |
3,8 |
4,2 |
4,2 |
4,3 |
4,5 |
4,6 |
|
USD/€ exchange rate (annual
average) |
125,5 |
135,0 |
139,0 |
139,0 |
139,0 |
139,0 |
|
Nominal effective exchange rate (2000 = 100) |
107,1 |
109,4 |
110,0 |
110,0 |
110,0 |
110,0 |
|
GDP growth – world (excluding EU) |
5,8 |
5,6 |
5,3 |
5,5 |
5,3 |
5,2 |
|
GDP growth – EU |
3,0 |
2,8 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
|
Growth of relevant external markets |
8,9 |
6,7 |
6,5 |
7,0 |
6,9 |
6,9 |
|
Global imports by volume (excluding EU) |
8,4 |
7,5 |
6,8 |
7,5 |
7,5 |
7,5 |
|
Oil price (USD by barrel Brent) |
65,2 |
69,5 |
74,9 |
72,7 |
73,6 |
74,6 |
|
(1) Interest rate assumption used for the macro-economic
context. For estimates of public finances, the forward rates applicable on 28/01/2008
have been used. |
|
Short-term interest rate (3 months) |
|
|
4,3 |
4,0 |
4,2 |
4,1 |
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Long-term interest rate (10 years) |
|
|
4,4 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
4,8 |
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