|
Comparison with the stability programme for
2007-2010
Table 7 compares the targets of the stability
programme for 2007-2010 with those of the current stability programme.
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TABEL 7
Comparison with the previous stability programme |
|
% of GDP |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
Real GDP growth |
|
previous update |
2,7 |
2,2 |
2,1 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
|
|
current update |
2,8 |
2,7 |
1,9 |
2,0 |
2,0 |
2,0 |
|
difference |
0,1 |
0,5 |
-0,2 |
-0,2 |
-0,2 |
|
| |
|
General government net lending |
|
previous update (1) |
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,7 |
0,9 |
|
|
current update |
0,3 |
-0,2 |
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,7 |
1,0 |
|
difference |
0,3 |
-0,5 |
-0,5 |
-0,4 |
-0,2 |
|
| |
|
General government gross debt |
|
previous update (1) |
87,7 |
83,9 |
80,4 |
76,6 |
72,6 |
|
|
current update |
88,2 |
84,9 |
81,5 |
78,1 |
74,7 |
71,1 |
|
difference |
0,5 |
1,0 |
1,1 |
1,5 |
2,1 |
|
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(1) In the 2007-2010 stability programme, the
Rail Infrastructure Fund had not been consolidated into the general
government sector. |
For the years 2006 and 2007, the macroeconomic
context was ultimately more favourable than the assumption used when the
2007-2010 stability programme was being drawn up. For subsequent years,
on the basis of the figures used in this programme, a negative deviation
of 0.2 percentage point is recorded in each case. For the period from
2008 to 2010, cumulative growth is 0.6 percentage point lower. Should
growth be revised downwards in 2008, this gap would continue to widen.
The targets for the overall balances in the
2007-2010 programme were the same as those set out in the amended law on
the Ageing Fund.
The comparison of the overall balance and debt
ratio figures between the two versions is disrupted by the consolidation
of the Rail Infrastructure Fund. This consolidation has a positive
effect of around 0.1% of GDP on the overall balance. On the other hand,
the debt ratio is pushed up as a result (1.4% of GDP in 2007 and
gradually declining to 0.7% of GDP in 2011). As regards the overall
balances, in 2007, a deviation of 0.5 percentage point from the
recommended target (a surplus of 0.3% of GDP) was recorded. The initial
budget for 2008 foresees a return to balance, albeit in a less
favourable macroeconomic context. Over the following years, the lost
ground vis-à-vis the original target will gradually be made up. The
target fixed for 2011 is still 0.1% of GDP less than that laid down in
the law on the Ageing Fund.
Owing to the consolidation of the RIF, the debt
ratio is higher in the current edition of the stability programme. In
2007, the difference comes to 1 percentage point. In the subsequent
years, this gap will widen further under the combined effect of a
slightly lower surplus and less favourable GDP growth.
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