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The economic outlook of the
Federal Planning Bureau
An April 2011 draft of the Federal Planning
Bureau’s economic outlook forms the basis of the path defined in this
stability programme. In the short term (2011 and 2012), the Federal
Planning Bureau’s outlook is based on the January 2011 economic budget,
but with adjustments to take account of the latest developments on the
labour market and the latest inflation forecasts. The figures for the
international economic environment in 2011 and 2012 are based on the
European Commission’s short-term (Autumn) forecast and on the latest
economic data concerning the euro exchange rate and the oil price. In
the medium term (2013 and 2014), the November 2010 OECD Economic Outlook
is used.
The Federal Planning Bureau expects Belgium to
see GDP growth of 2 % in 2011 and 2.3 % in 2012, compared to figures of
1.8 % and 1.9 % respectively for the EU. After that, Belgian growth is
expected to average 2.2 %, which is the figure which the OECD predicts
in the medium term for the euro area. In Belgium’s specific case, the
Federal Planning Bureau forecasts economic growth of 2.1 % in 2013 and
2.3 % in 2014, while the growth figures forecast for the EU are 2.3 and
2.4 % respectively.
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TABLE 1
External environment
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2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
|
Short-term interest rate
(annual average) |
0,8 |
1,6 |
2,5 |
2,6 |
2,8 |
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Long-term interest rate
(annual average) |
3,3 |
4,2 |
4,5 |
4,6 |
4,7 |
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USD/euro exchange rate (annual
average) |
132,6 |
139,6 |
139,2 |
139,2 |
139,2 |
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Nominal effective exchange rate (2000=100) |
109,6 |
107,2 |
107,8 |
107,8 |
107,8 |
|
GDP-growth - world (excluding EU) |
5,6 |
4,6 |
4,6 |
4,6 |
4,6 |
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GDP-growth - EU
|
1,9 |
1,8 |
1,9 |
2,3 |
2,4 |
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Growth of relevant external markets |
11,0 |
6,6 |
6,4 |
6,7 |
7,0 |
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Global imports by volume (excluding EU) |
13,8 |
8,2 |
8,0 |
7,5 |
7,5 |
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Oil price (USD) |
79,6 |
111,8 |
110,0 |
113,0 |
117,4 |
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Source: Federal Planning Bureau |
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